基于灰色模型和空间聚类的全国7岁以下儿童保健管理率分析及预测

目的探索影响7岁以下儿童保健管理率的因素。方法收集1997-2010年全国7岁以下儿童保健管理率指标,2010年大陆地区31个省、自治区、直辖市的7岁以下儿童保健管理率、城市及农村居民可支配收入、消费性支出、保健费等指标。运用灰色模型对中国7岁以下儿童保健管理率进行拟合,并使用此模型进行外推预测;运用空间聚类来分析地区间差异;利用岭回归探索2010年大陆地区31个省、自治区、直辖市的7岁以下儿童保健管理率和城市及农村居民可支配收入、消费性支出和保健费等指标间的相关关系。结果灰色模型预测精度大于96%,模型基本适合。各地区7岁以下儿童的保健管理率差别较大,保健管理率和社会经济指标间呈现中等程度的相关,相关系数在0.49左右。结论灰色模型可较好地模拟儿童保健管理率变动趋势并进行预测,儿童保健管理率和社会经济指标间存在一定的生态学相关关系。

Analysis and prediction of national coverage rate of preschool children health care based on grey model and spatial clustering

Objective To explore factors affecting the coverage rate of health care among the children younger than 7 years （preschool children）. Methods The national coverage rates of preschool children health care from 1997 to 2010 were collect- ed. The provincial coverage rate, urban and rural residents＇ distx~sable income, consumer spending and health care related expense in mainland China in 2010 were collected. Grey model and spatial clustering were adopted for fitting and prediction. Ridge regres sion was performed to investigate the mcio economic determinants of the coverage rate of preschool children health care. Re- suits The prediction accuracy of grey model was greater than 96%. The coverage rate of pre.school children health care varied across regions. Moderate correlation was found between the coverage rate of preschcol children health care and socio economic in- dicators, with the coefficient of determination around 0.49. Conclusions Grey model can simulate and predict the trend of the coverage rate of preschool children health care. The ecological relationship between coverage rate of preschool children health care and socio economic indicators catches the attention.