铁岭市2007-2015年城市居民食管癌死亡变化情况Joinpoint分析及灰色模型预测

目的 Joinpoint线性回归可用于研究趋势变化规律,灰色预测模型可对食管癌死亡率进行有效预测.本研究旨在将Joinpoint回归和灰色预测模型相结合对铁岭市城市居民食管癌死亡变化情况进行分析和预测.方法 对2007-01-01-2015-12-31铁岭市银州区和清河区食管癌死因监测数据进行统计分析,用Joinpoint Regression Program 4.3.1划分年龄组和分析年度变化趋势,用GM(1,1)灰色模型进行预测.结果 铁岭市2007-2015年城市居民因食管癌死亡316例,年均粗死亡率7.95/10万(标化死亡率5.26/10万),年均粗死亡率男性(13.87/10万)高于女性(2.10/10万),差异有统计学意义,x2 =8.99,P=0.003.Joinpoint显示全人群、45～74岁和≥75岁人群食管死亡率年度变化趋势不显著,年度变化百分比分别为1.95％、-0.27％和1.51％.GM(1,1)预测2016-2019年全人群、45～74岁人群食管癌死亡率均呈上升趋势,≥75岁人群食管癌死亡率呈下降趋势.结论 铁岭市城市居民食管癌死亡率经GM(1,1)灰色模型预测呈上升趋势,应提高重视,开展综合防治措施.

Analyze the change of mortality of esophagus cancer in Tieling district from 2007 to 2015 and predict with GM model

OBJECTIVE To study the changes of trend by Joinpoint Linear regression analysis and effectively forecast the esophagus cancer mortality with Grey model.METHODS In this essay,the changes of esophagus cancer mortality in urban residents of Tieling were studied and forecast by Joinpoint Linear regreesion analysis coupled with Grey Model Methods.From January 1,2007 to December 31,2015,the data of esophagus cancer death in Yinzhou and Qinghe districts of Tieling were classified by age and obtained the average annual changes according to the Joinpoint Regression Program analysis,and further predicted by Model GM (1,1).RESULTS During 2007 and 2015,there were 316 cases died of esophageal cancer in Tieling district.The average crude mortality rate was 7.95/105 (standardized mortality rate 5.26/105),for male was 13.87/105,which was higher than that for female 2.10/105.The differences were statistically significant (x2=8.99,P=0.003).The Joinpoint Regression Program analysis showed that the annual variable esophagus cancer mortality trends of all groups,people aged from 45 to 74 and above 75 were not obvious,and annual percent changes were 1.95％,-0.27％,and 1.51％.The softwareGM(1,1)was used to predict that during 2016 to 2019,esophageal cancer mortality rates of all groups and people aged from 45 to 74 were rising slowly,but this opposite to people above 75.CONCLUSIONS The esophagus cancer mortality in Tieling was not decreasing analyzed by Joinpoint Linear regression,but rising forecast by GM(1,1)Grey Model.We should pay more attention to the prevention and treatment of esophagus cancer.