Children with congenital heart disease: Probability of natural survival

Summary The age distribution of death in all children with congenital heart disease (CHD), who died in a 27-year period in Central Bohemia (population of 1.2 million), and the data on the incidence of CHD in children born in Bohemia (population of 6.3 million) in 1980 were used to calculate the probability of survival of a child born with CHD. Eighty-six percent of these children survived to the first month of life—mostly those with pulmonary stenosis (PS, 99%), aortic stenosis (AS, 95%), ventricular septal defect (VSD, 92%), and atrioventricular septal defect (AVSD, 91%). Seventy-one percent of patients survived the first year of life—mostly those with PS (97%), AS (91%), atrial septal defect (ASD, 89%), VSD (80%), and persistent ductus arteriosus (PDA, 78%). In total, 67% of CHD patients can be expected to survive childhood. The highest survival rates were found in PS (94%), AS and ASD (84%), VSD and PDA (70–80%), and coarctation of the aorta (COA, 68%). The survival rate for the remaining forms of CHD was less than 50%.The highest mortality rate (10% of all children born with CHD) can be expected in the first postnatal week. The lowest survival in the first week was found among those with hypoplastic left heart (HLHS, 39%), double-outlet right ventricle (DORV, 50%), truncus arteriosus (TrA, 57%), pulmonary atresia (PA, 70%), and transposition of the great arteries (TGA, 83%). In addition, total anomalous pulmonary venous connection (TAPVC) and single ventricle had the highest risk of death in the first year of life.