Contribution of simulation models to public health decisions: the influenza pandemic

The influenza pandemic threat had led to an increased awareness and several countries have used models to assess the impact of control measures on the influenza pandemic. We reviewed the publications related to simulation models since 2003 and discuss their contribution to public health decision in France. The studies conclude that rapid control measures with a high coverage can stop a nascent pandemic. This can be applied to a community with a limited importation of cases but the quantity of antiviral drug needed would become rapidly prohibitive in case of further multiple foci. Both prophylactic and curative use of antiviral drugs can reduce the number of hospitalizations and the incidence during a pandemic. Finally, if a single strategy is sufficient to limit an outbreak in case of a moderate reproductive number, a combination of control measures is mandatory in case of highly transmissible strains. The results of these studies were taken in account to implement guidelines concerning antiviral drug use, in France.