| 传染病爆发的家庭聚集性研究及分布拟合 |
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| 引用本文： | 李丹,周宝森. 传染病爆发的家庭聚集性研究及分布拟合[J]. 疾病控制杂志, 2003, 7(5): 426-427 |
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| 作者姓名： | 李丹 周宝森 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国医科大学流行病学教研室,辽宁,沈阳,110001;辽宁省疾病预防控制中心,辽宁,沈阳,110005
2. 中国医科大学流行病学教研室,辽宁,沈阳,110001 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目 (编号 :30 170 833) |
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| 摘 要： | 目的 分析传染病爆发的家庭聚集性特点，探讨应用数学模型来拟合实际的分布。方法 应用负二项分布、β-二项分布对传染病家庭聚集性分布进行拟合。结果 经比较拟合结果，负二项分布对流行实际的模拟具有较好的效果。结论 负二项分布适用于罹患率较低的传染病爆发家庭聚集性的拟合，有助于查明传播途径和制定有效防治措施。
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| 关 键 词： | 传染病 家庭聚集性 负二项分布 β-二项分布 |
| 文章编号： | 1008-6013(2003)05-0426-02 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003-07-21 |
Study on the households clustering in outbreak of infectious disease and fitting the distribution |
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| LI Dan ,,ZHOU Bao-sen . .Epidemiology Department,China Medical University,Shenyang ,China, .Center for Disease Prevention and Control of Liaoning Province,Shenyang ,China. Study on the households clustering in outbreak of infectious disease and fitting the distribution[J]. Chinese Journal of Disease Control and Prevention, 2003, 7(5): 426-427 |
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| Authors: | LI Dan ZHOU Bao-sen . .Epidemiology Department China Medical University Shenyang China .Center for Disease Prevention Control of Liaoning Province Shenyang China |
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| Affiliation: | LI Dan 1,2,ZHOU Bao-sen 1. 1.Epidemiology Department,China Medical University,Shenyang 110001,China, 2.Center for Disease Prevention and Control of Liaoning Province,Shenyang 110005,China |
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| Abstract: | Objective To analyze the characteristic of households clustering in outbreak of infectious disease, observed data were fitted to mathematical models. Methods Negative-binomial distribution and Beta-binomial distribution were employed to fit distribution of the disease. Results The effect of application by Negative-binomial distribution was satisfied. Conclusions Negative-binomial distribution was suitable for households clustering in low attack rate of infectious disease and it's helpful to explore the transmission path and establish the measure to prevent infectious diseases. |
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| Keywords: | communicable diseases family characteristics binomial distribution |
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