198例SARS转归病例特征分析

目的：通过对198例转归SARS病例的分析，了解SARS病例的流行特征以及影响转归的因素。方法：采用病例调查和电话回访等方式，收集SARS病例的资料，运用SPSS、Excel进行统计分析，并建立转归影响因素的Logistic回归模型。结果：198例SARS患中治愈179例，死亡19例，病死率为9．60％，患年龄为9～79岁，男性占56．67％，女性占43．43％，医务人员占37．88％，所有病例中，平均转归时间为30．59d(痊愈病例为31．92d，死亡病例为18．21d)，有明显的家庭和医院聚集性。应用Logisitic回归分析影响转归的因素，模型为：Y=[1 e^(4.958-0.107X1 0.065X2)]^-1(X1-年龄、X2-住院时间)，年龄越大，住院时间越短，死亡的危险越高。结论：密切接触是SARS的主要传播途径，发病以家庭和医院聚集性多见，影响转归的因素主要有年龄、住院时间等。

The epidemiological characteristics of 198 patients with Severe acute respiratory Syndrome(SARS)

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of patients with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and to analyze the factors that might be related to the prognosis of the disease Methods Field survey was conducted on the SARS patients who had recovered or died Date was analyzed using SPSS and Excel software The logistic regression model was established to analyze the factors that might be related to the prognosis of the disease Results A total of 198 clinically diagnosed SARS patients was enrolled in this study,in which 19 had died,with a fatality rate was 9 60% The patients' age ranged form 9 to 79 years 56 67% were male,and 43 43% were female 37 88% of the subjects were hospital staffs;The average hospitalization time was 30 59 days(31 90 days for convalescent patients and 20 00 days for death patients). The aggregation of the disease is common The logistic regression model to analyze the factor s that might be related to the prognosis was:Y=[1+e (4 958-0 107X l+0 065X 2) ] -1 (X 1-age?X 2-admission) Conclusion Close contact was the most important transmission route of SARS,the family and hospital aggregation was the main characteristics of SARS,Age and hospitalization period were the two factors influencing the prognosis of the disease