北京市吸毒人群基数的快速调查评估

目的:探索科学、实用的快速评估吸毒(海洛因和新型毒品)人群基数的方法。方法:采用多轮快速估计方法,在125名北京市劳教戒毒机构戒毒人员中进行北京市滥用海洛因和新型毒品(冰毒、摇头丸、氯胺酮)人数的评估。结果:估计北京市滥用海洛因人数的平均值是40000,下限是30000,上限是60000,分别是2005年底登记在册人数的2.14、1.60和3.21倍;估计北京市滥用新型毒品人数的平均值是30000,下限是25000,上限是50000。结论:应用快速评估方法在戒毒人群中进行毒品滥用情况估计,方法比较科学、易行;虽然影响估计结果的因素较多,但随着研究设计和现场实施技术的不断完善,此类快速调查评估可应用于药物滥用流行病学研究。

RAPID ASSESSMENT METHOD FOR ESTIMATING THE SIZE OF DRUG ABUSERS IN BEIJING

Objective:To explore a scientific and suitable method for rapidly estimating the size of drug abusers. Methods:Multiple -stage rapid assessment methodwasusedin the surveyof 125 drug abusers in a Beijing re-education through laboragency. Results:The average,lowest and highest estimated numbers of heroin abusers in Beijing were 40 000 , 30 000 and 60 000 ,respectively,which were 2.14 , 1.60 and 3.21 times as much as those of the registereddrug abusers in 2005. The average,lowest and highest estimated numbers of“club drug” abusers in Beijing were 30 000 , 25 000 and 50 000 , respectively. Conclusion:Application of rapid assessment method for estimating the size of drug abusers is simple and credible. Although there are many factors that might affect assessment procedure,rapid assessment method can be used in drug abuse epidemiology study with the research design and operation technique being improved.