应用Delphi法建立部队肺结核预警指标体系

目的筛选肺结核预警指标,初步构建部队肺结核预警指标体系。方法采用Delphi法应用文献研究及专家小组拟定初步指标体系框架,然后通过两轮专家咨询,得到各项指标的得分,计算出各项指标权重系数。结果两轮咨询专家的积极指数分别为87.50%和93.30%,专家权威系数分别为0.77±0.05和0.79±0.03;第一轮咨询各项指标总得分为（6.759±1.757）分,变异系数为0.248±0.070,第二轮咨询各项指标总得分为（7.348±1.362）分,变异系数为0.180±0.048。最终确定的指标中,一级指标的权重分别为0.1 959、0.4 863、0.0 503、0.2 676;经过两轮咨询,最终建立了包含4个一级指标、11个二级指标、37个三级指标的部队肺结核预警体系。结论初步构建了部队肺结核预警指标体系,为部队肺结核的防治提供了技术参考。

Establishment of Warning Indicator System of Pulmonary Tuberculosis for PLA Troops by Using Delphi Method

Objective To screen early warning indicators of pulmonary tuberculosis in order to initially establish warning indicator system for PLA troops. Methods A preliminary indicator system framework was drawn up by experts using Delphi method and the literature researches,and the indicators scores were obtained after two rounds of experts consultation,and then the weight coefficients of the indicators were calculated. Results The positive indices of two rounds of consultation were 87. 50% and 93. 30% respectively; the expert authority coefficients were 0. 77 ± 0. 05 and 0. 79 ±0. 03 respectively; the total indicators score of the first round of consultation was 6. 759 ± 1. 757,and the coefficient of variation was 0. 248 ± 0. 070; the total indicators score of the second round of consultation was 7. 348 ± 1. 362,and the coefficient of variation was 0. 180 ± 0. 048. In the final definitive indicators,weights of the first class of index were0. 1959,0. 4863,0. 0503 and 0. 2676; the final warning indicator system of pulmonary tuberculosis for troops was established after two rounds of consultations,which contained 4 indicators of first class,11 secondary class of indicators and 37three class of indicators of TB warning. Conclusion The warning indicator system for PLA troops has been established initially,which can provide technical reference for prevention of pulmonary tuberculosis.