Morse跌倒评估量表预测住院患者跌倒风险效果的Meta分析

目的应用Meta分析法综合评价Morse跌倒评估量表对住院患者跌倒风险预测的有效性。方法检索Cochrane Library、PubMed、Web of science、Embase数据库、中国生物医学文献数据库、CNKI、万方数据库、维普数据库,收集关于Morse跌倒评估量表预测跌倒风险的研究文献,检索时限为数据库建立至2019年9月30日。利用诊断准确性质量评价研究工具量表对纳入的文献进行质量评价,并采用Meta-Disc 1.4软件进行数据分析。结果最终纳入20篇文献,共48947例患者。异质性检验显示,纳入的研究存在异质性,通过随机效应模型计算合并敏感度为0.75(95%CI 0.73~0.77),合并特异度为0.64(95%CI 0.64~0.64),合并阳性似然比为2.45(95%CI 1.97~3.03),合并阴性似然比为0.39(95%CI 0.29~0.52),合并诊断比值比为6.58(95%CI 4.13~10.46),合并受试者工作特征曲线下面积为0.78(SE=0.026)。结论Morse跌倒评估量表作为单独指标对住院患者跌倒风险预测有效性为中等水平。

Meta-analysis of effect of Morse Fall Scale on the prediction of fall risk in inpatients

Objective To comprehensively evaluate the validity of Morse Fall Scale for predicting the fall risk in hospitalized patients by using Meta-analysis.Methods Cochrane library,PubMed,Web of science,Embase database,China Biology Medicine disc(CBMdisc),CNKI,Wanfang Database and VIP database were searched to collect research literatures on Morse Fall Scale predicting fall risk,and the search time limit was from the establishment of databases to September 30,2019.Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies(QUADAS)was used to evaluate the quality of included literatures,and Meta-Disc 1.4 software was used for data analysis.Results Finally,20 articles were included,involving a total of 48947 patients.Heterogeneity tests revealed heterogeneity in the included studies.Calculated by a random effect model,the pooled sensitivity was 0.75(95%CI 0.73 to 0.77),pooled specificity was 0.64(95%CI 0.64 to 0.64),pooled positive likelihood ratio was 2.45(95%CI 1.97 to 3.03),pooled negative likelihood ratio was 0.39(95%CI 0.29 to 0.52),pooled diagnostic odds ratio was 6.58(95%CI 4.13 to 10.46),and the pooled area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.78(SE=0.026).Conclusions As a separate assessment index,Morse Fall Scale has a moderate validity in in predicting the fall risk in inpatients.