Predictors of subsequent prostate cancer in men with a prostate specific antigen of 2.6 to 4.0 ng/ml and an initially negative biopsy

PURPOSE: Almost 75% of men with a prostate specific antigen (PSA) of 2.6 to 4.0 ng/ml have no evidence of prostate cancer on biopsy. Deciding whether and when to repeat the biopsy is challenging. We determined if patient specific variables might identify men at increased risk for the subsequent detection of prostate cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We analyzed the records of 24,893 men from a community based prostate cancer screening study. Our study group consisted of 1,202 men with PSA 2.6 to 4.0 ng/ml and a previously negative prostate biopsy. Patient specific variables were analyzed for their value in predicting a future diagnosis of prostate cancer. RESULTS: Of 1,011 men with adequate followup 136 (13.5%) were subsequently diagnosed with prostate cancer. Mean followup +/- SD in men without prostate cancer was 72 +/- 36 months. Prostate cancer was subsequently diagnosed in 35% of men with high grade prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia (HGPIN) on initial biopsy (p <0.0001), in 18% with abnormal or suspicious digital rectal examination (DRE) (p = 0.02) and 16% with an annual PSA velocity of 0 ng/ml (p = 0.002). Multivariate analysis identified HGPIN, initial PSA 3.6 to 4.0 ng/ml, abnormal DRE, family history of prostate cancer and annual PSA velocity 0 ng/ml as predictors of prostate cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Men with a PSA of 2.6 to 4.0 ng/ml and negative biopsy should be advised to undergo repeat biopsy if they have HGPIN, initial PSA 3.6 to 4.0 ng/ml, abnormal DRE, a family history of prostate cancer or a PSA velocity of 0 ng/ml or greater.