基于协整理论的中国医药制造业市场竞争程度与研发资金投入关系研究

目的 明晰中国医药制造业市场竞争程度与研发资金投入之间的关系,为未来研发资金投入和医药制造业创新能力提升提供参考。方法 选取中国医药制造业1995—2015年企业数和研发经费内部支出的数据为指标,基于协整理论,建立误差修正模型分析两者长短期关系,并运用格兰杰因果检验分析两者之间相互关系。结果 研发经费内部支出与企业数两个变量之间有协整关系,即长期看来趋于稳定的均衡关系。不同滞后期下,研发经费内部支出都是企业数的格兰杰原因,在滞后期为1~3期的前提下,研发经费内部支出每增加1%,企业数减少0.884%。在滞后期为5期的前提下,企业数每减少1%,研发经费内部支出增加0.494%。结论 中国医药制造业市场竞争程度会在研发资金投入的拉动下,呈现长期负相的影响结果,随着研发资金投入的大大增加,医药制造业的企业数会逐渐减少,市场竞争程度会降低；但短期内,研发资金投入并不会使市场竞争程度产生较大改变,但随着时间的推移,两者会逐渐向长期均衡关系方向调整修正,市场竞争程度对研发资金投入的负向拉动作用将变得显著。随着企业数减少,市场竞争程度降低,研发资金投入会增加。医药制造业需要增加研发资金投入,提高行业创新能力的同时加快行业重组整合。

Relationship between market competition degree and R&D investment of Chinese pharmaceutical manufacturing industry by cointegration theory

Objective To clarify the relationship between the market competition degree and the investment of R&D capital of Chinese pharmaceutical manufacturing industry,and to provide references for the improvement of R&D investment and innovation capacity in pharmaceutical manufacturing industry in the future.Methods The number of enterprises and internal expenses of R&D expenditure in China''s pharmaceutical manufacturing industry from 1995 to 2015 as indicators were selected,on the basis of cointegration theory,error correction model was established to analyze the long-term and short-term relationship between both of them,and Granger test was adopted to analyze the correlation between the two variables.Results There was a cointegration relationship between the internal expenses of R&D expenditure and the number of enterprises,which indicated that there was a stable equilibrium relationship between both of them.In all the lag phases,the internal expenses of R&D expenditure were the Granger reason of enterprise number.In the lag phase of Ito III,with an increase of 1% of internal expenses of R&D expenditure,the number of enterprises decreased by 0.884%.In the Vlag phase,with a decrease of 1 enterprise,the internal expenses of R&D expenditure increased by 0.494%.Conclusion In Chinese pharmaceutical manufacturing industry,R&D investment has a long-term negative pulling effect on market competition degree.With the increase of R&D investment,the number of enterprises in the industry will decrease and the market competition degree will be decrease.But in the short term,the R&D investment does not make significant changes in market competition degree.And in the long term,the two will adjust to long-term equilibrium relationship,and the market competition degree will has a significant positive pulling effect on R&D investment.As the number of enterprises decreases,market competition will decline and R&D investment will be increased.The pharmaceutical manufacturing industry needs to increase the investment in research and development,improve the innovation capacity and speed up the reorganization and integration of the industry.