风险分析理论在国际航行船舶媒介生物检疫中的应用

〔目的〕通过对天津港2004年所有入境船舶资料进行分析,找出导致船舶检出医学媒介生物的危险因素,并建立数学模型,指导在出入境船舶上对医学媒介生物的检查,有效防止媒介生物传入我国。〔方法〕利用SPSS12.0对资料进行分析,应用风险分析的理论建立数学模型。〔结果〕找出船员国籍、船舶的阳性记录、来自疾病流行区、月份、船龄等7个危险因素,并建立了数学模型。〔结论〕通过建立医学媒介生物传入危险因素的数学模型,使出入境交通工具的医学媒介生物侵袭风险定量化,可用于指导入境船舶媒介生物检疫查验工作。

The Application of Risk-assessment Theory for the Vector-Control and Frontier Quarantine on Cross-Border Vehicles

Objective To find out the risk factors which influence the exist of the vectors on the entry-exit vehicles, and bring out the formula showing the relationship of all the risk factors and the results. Then, we take the relationship into frontier quarantine work. Methods The data of all the entry-exit vehicles at Tianjin port in 2004 were analyzed by SPSS12.0. The model of mathematics was built with the theory of risk-assessment. Results From the analysis of SPSS12.0, we got 7 risk factors, such as the nationality of the crew, vehicle'ositive-records, last port, the month, the age of the vehicle, etc. Conclusion It is aimed to quantify the risk of the bio-medical vector invasion in the transportation vehicles by means of the establishment of mathematical analyzing moder, and to provide guidance on the bio-medical vector quarantine and inspection in the entry watercrafts. [