Comparison of three methods of profile change prediction in the adult orthodontic patient

Potential changes in the contour of the facial profile that accompany tooth movement can be important considerations in developing an orthodontic treatment plan. The objective of this study was to compare the accuracy of three different methods of predicting horizontal soft-tissue changes. Eighty-three nongrowing, orthodontically treated patients comprised the sample. Pretreatment and posttreatment lateral cephalometric hard- and soft-tissue landmark points were digitized. A coordinate system was defined, landmark coordinates were corrected for magnification, and then hard- and soft-tissue, angular, and linear measures were calculated by computer programs developed on a DEC PDP 11/44. The accuracy of prediction of soft-tissue landmark changes was compared for three prediction methods: (1) use of ratios of means of soft-tissue changes to corresponding hard-tissue changes, (2) use of a bivariate regression equation on corresponding hard-tissue landmark changes, and (3) use of stepwise multiple regression with hard-tissue changes and initial hard- and soft-tissue facial characteristics as predictor variables. For predicting changes of four soft-tissue points, multiple regression equations were slightly more accurate than ratio of means predictions. The standard errors of the estimate ranged from 0.7 to 1.1 mm for the multiple regression predictions; these were from 0.2 to 1.4 mm lower than those obtained for ratio of means predictions. The accuracy of the bivariate regression prediction technique fell between that of the other two methods. Examination of the residuals showed that the multiple regression equations consistently underpredicted the most extreme soft-tissue facial changes.