传染病的Markov过程模型研究

目的对某传染病爆发后的感染传播强度和直接致死率、间接致死率及疫区人群总体在时刻t的健康人数和死亡人数进行预测。方法考虑传染病爆发疫区的人群总体无迁入迁出情况,提出了一种基于Markov两个瞬时态、两个吸收态的传染病模型。结果该模型可以很好地描述传染病爆发后存在死因竞争条件下的生存分析。结论模型构造分析和数据模拟表明文中提出的基于Markov两个瞬时态、两个吸收态的传染病模型可以为传染病爆发后的有效预测及防控提供理论依据,并有很强的实用推广价值。

Markov Process Model Study for Infectious Disease

Objective The purpose of this research is to make an effective prediction for epidemical disease after its outbreak,which related to its transfection strength,its direct death rate and indirect death rate.In addition,this research obtains the expectation of the number of health and death within the influence outbreak population at any time.Methods This paper presents a Markov epidemical model with two transient statues and two absorption statues under the precondition that without population ingoing and out-migration.Results This model can describe the survival analysis fairly well,after the influence outbreak with multi-death causes competitions.Conclusion Model building analysis and data simulation suggest that this model can be used to predict the strength of infection disease and provide a theoretical framework to control epidemical disease.Also,this model has some practical application value.