| 运用移动平均比率法预测门诊人数 |
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| 引用本文： | 林健,姚孟君,谭健,张明. 运用移动平均比率法预测门诊人数[J]. 中国医院统计, 2002, 9(1): 9-11 |
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| 作者姓名： | 林健 姚孟君 谭健 张明 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 510630 广东省中山医科大学附属三院
2. 武警广东省总队医院 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的 建立一个简便模型公式预测医院门诊人数。方法 用季节预测法中的移动平均比率法计算趋势值与调整月指数，最后应用模型。结果 依据1997-2000年门诊人数预测出2001年各月的门诊人数。结论 该方法简便易行，预测效果好，能为医院管理人员计划决策提供一个重要依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 移动平均比率法 预测 门诊人数 卫生统计 |
| 文章编号： | 1006-5253(2002)01-0009-03 |
A Prediction of Outpatient Number with Moving Average Method |
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| Lin Jian,Yao Mengjun,Tan Jian,et al.. A Prediction of Outpatient Number with Moving Average Method[J]. Chinese Journal of Hospital Statistics, 2002, 9(1): 9-11 |
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| Authors: | Lin Jian Yao Mengjun Tan Jian et al. |
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| Affiliation: | Lin Jian,Yao Mengjun,Tan Jian,et al. The Third Hospital Affiliated to Zhongshan Medical University,Guangdong 510630 |
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| Abstract: | Objective To establish a simple model to predict hospital outpatient number. Methods The trend values were calculated and the monthly indexes were adjusted with moving average method of season prediction method, and then the model was applied. Results Outpatient numbers of each month in 2001 were predicted according to those from 1997 to 2000. Conclusion This method was simple and easy to be operated, it could provide a basis for planning and making policy. |
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| Keywords: | Moving average method Prediction Outpatient number |
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