2014年8月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估

目的评估2014年8月我国(不包括香港、澳门和台湾地区)突发公共卫生事件及需要关注的传染病风险。方法根据全国突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种监测资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,以视频会议形式邀请全国各省(直辖市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果根据既往数据分析,结合近期全国突发公共卫生事件形势,预计2014年8月全国突发公共卫生事件数较7月下降;报告事件将以食物中毒、高温中暑、传染病事件(如登革热、病毒性乙型脑炎、霍乱、细菌性痢疾等)为主。我国存在埃博拉病毒病输入的风险,基于我国目前具有的发现、诊断和控制能力,病例输入后发生疫情扩散的可能性低。广东省、云南省已报告登革热本地暴发疫情,广西、福建、海南、浙江等其他南方省(自治区)由输入病例疫情导致本地暴发的风险高。8月食物中毒的事件数、病例数和死亡数均会维持在较高的水平。海南省台风灾后需重视霍乱、登革热、疟疾和食物中毒等传染病和突发公共卫生事件防控;云南鲁甸地震灾区需重视甲型病毒性肝炎、细菌性痢疾、伤寒副伤寒、其他感染性腹泻病、急性出血性结膜炎、手足口病、食物中毒事件传染病和突发公共卫生事件防控。8月仍是高温中暑高发季节。结论 2014年8月我国的突发公共卫生事件及传染病疫情发生态势与往年相似,事件数将下降;需重点关注埃博拉病毒病、登革热、食物中毒,同时关注部分灾区自然灾害后的卫生防病工作。

Risk assessment of public health emergency and concerned communicable diseases in China,August 2014

Objective To assess the risk of public health emergency and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in August 2014. Methods Based on the surveillance data and information from different channels, semi - structured interviews and discussions among subject matter experts from Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention were adopted to assess the risk. And the experts from all the Provincial Centers for Disease Control and Prevention also attended the assessment through remote video conference. Results According to the surveillance data of infectious disease and public health emergency, the occurrence of public health emergency events in August will decrease, and the major categories would be food poisoning , heat stroke, communicable diseases （dengue, Japanese B encephalitis, cholera, bacillary dysentery）. The risk of imported Ebola virus disease （EVD） might exist in China. As China has the capabilities to detect, diagnose, and control the disease, the possibility of further transmission of EVD is low. Guangdong and Yunnan have reported local outbreaks of dengue. The risk of local dengue outbreak after imported cases might be high in Guangxi, Fujian, Hainan, Zhejiang and other southern provinces. Food poisoning events in August might be still at high level. After the typhoon, Hainan should concern the prevention and control of cholera, dengue, malaria, and food poisoning . After the Yunnan LuDian Earthquake, the affected areas should concern the prevention and control of hepatitis A, bacillary dysentery, typhoid, paratyphoid, other infectious diarrhea disease, acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis, hand, foot and mouth disease, food poisoning. August is still a high seasonal month for heat stroke. Conclusion It is expected that the national public health emergencies and epidemic situation of communicable diseases in August will remain similar to the previous years and continue to decline. We need to strengthen surveillance and preparedness for EVD, dengue, food poisoning, and diseases prev