2014年4月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估

目的评估2014年4月中国(不包括香港、澳门和台湾地区)突发公共卫生事件及需要关注的传染病风险。方法根据全国突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种监测资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,以视频会议形式邀请全国各省(直辖市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果根据近期传染病和突发公共卫生事件监测数据,结合既往突发公共卫生事件发生情况及传染病流行特点分析,4月全国突发公共卫生事件会有一定程度增加。3月,麻疹及手足口病疫情已显著升高,预计4月发病水平将继续上升;近期人感染H7N9禽流感报告病例数呈明显下降趋势,近期内疫情发生比较大规模的或者是较多出现的可能性不大,应该会有个别病例发现,但是近期不会出现多地大范围的、数量大的情况;4月食物中毒事件将出现上升,中毒原因将以微生物性和植物性食物中毒为主;西非埃博拉病毒病及中东呼吸综合征输入我国的风险低,但仍需密切关注疫情发展,及时开展风险评估。结论 2014年4月我国的突发公共卫生事件及传染病疫情发生态势与往年相似,事件数将开始上升;需重点关注人感染H7N9禽流感、手足口病引发的公共卫生风险及西非埃博拉病毒病疫情输入我国的风险。

Risk assessment of public health emergency and concerned infectious diseases in China,April 2014

Objective To assess the risk of public health emergency and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in April 2014. Methods Semi-structured interviews and discussions among subject matter experts were based on surveillance data and public organization bulletins, et al. And provincial Centers for Disease Control and Prevention attended the assessment through remote video conference. Results According to the surveillance data of infectious disease and public health emergency, the occurrence of public health emergency events in April will start to rise, the increase in the measles and HFMD epidemic has been found significantly in March, the number of reported cases will keep rising in April. The human cases of avian influenza A （H7N9） infection recently declined. Further sporadic human cases H7N9 infection are expected in affected and possibly neighboring areas. But there is not likely to spread extensively and have much number of cases like last Spring. Food poisoning events are expected to increase in April and the microorganisms and plant poisoning will take the most part. The risk of Ebola virus disease and MERS infection spreading from abroad is considered low. We need to continue strengthening surveillance and carry out risk assessment timely. Conclusion It is expected that the national public health emergencies and epidemic situation of infectious diseases in April will remain similar to the previous years and start to incline. We need to strengthen surveillance and preparedness for human infection with avian influenza A（H7N9） viruses, HFMD and Ebola virus disease.