Estimates of the direct and indirect costs of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome in the United States, 1985, 1986, and 1991

This study presents three estimates ranging from low to high of the direct and indirect costs of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) epidemic in the United States in 1985, 1986, and 1991, based on prevalence estimates provided by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC). According to the author's best estimates, personal medical care costs of AIDS in current dollars will rise from $630 million in 1985 and $1.1 billion in 1986 and $8.5 billion in 1991. Nonpersonal costs (for research, screening, education, and general support services) are estimated to rise from $319 million in 1985 to $542 million in 1986 to $2.3 billion in 1991. Indirect costs attributable to loss of productivity resulting from morbidity and premature mortality are estimated to rise from $3.9 billion in 1985 to $7.0 billion in 1986 to $55.6 billion in 1991. While estimated personal medical care costs of AIDS in 1985 and 1986 represent only 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively, of such estimated expenditures for the U.S. population in these 2 years, they represent 1.4% of these estimated costs in 1991. Similarly, while estimated indirect costs of AIDS represent 1.2% in 1985 and 2.1% in 1986 of the estimated indirect costs of all illness, they are projected to rise to almost 12% in 1991. For estimating the indirect costs, the human capital method was used, and it was assumed that average wages and labor force participation rates of persons with AIDS were the same as those for the general population by age and sex.