Resolving causes of developmental continuity or “tracking.” I. Longitudinal twin studies during growth

Models of developmental continuity and change in quantitative phenotypes may be tested using longitudinal data from twins. We illustrate a procedure for establishing the power and required sample sizes for detecting developmental transmission against an alternative common-factor hypothesis. We explore the general effects of different heritabilities, different fidelities of environmental and genetic developmental transmission, and varying numbers of occasions of measurement. In addition, a constraint of wide application is postulated for the action of the environment; either environmental effects are transmitted (learned) and occasion specific or they exert a constant influence which is not transmitted (learned). While the situations we examine are necessarily restricted here, our explorations of power show that, providing that we measure on at least four occasions, it is easy to detect developmental transmission with workable sample sizes.This work was supported in part by Grants AG04954, MH40828, GM30250, AA06781, and HL31010 from the National Institutes of Health.