上海市日平均气温对居民死亡数的滞后效应研究

目的 了解上海市日均气温对居民每日非意外死亡、心血管疾病死亡和呼吸系统疾病死亡的关系.方法 根据上海市2001年1月1日至2008年12月31日每日居民死亡资料和同期气象指标及大气污染指标,采用非线性分布滞后模型,在控制长期趋势、季节趋势和其他混杂因素后,研究日均气温与日非意外死亡数、心血管疾病死亡数和呼吸系统疾病死亡数之间的关系.结果 上海市日均气温对非意外死亡、心血管疾病死亡和呼吸系统疾病死亡效应曲线均为J形.冷效应具有延迟性,在滞后1d开始出现,4d达到最高,持续14～30d.热效应表现为急性效应,以当天最高,持续2d,呈现出明显的收获效应.结论 高温和低温均是上海市居民每日死亡的危险因素,存在滞后效应,且低温效应的滞后时间长于高温.

Distributed lag effects in the relationship between daily mean temperature and mortality in Shanghai

Objective To study the impact of daily mean temperature on mortality in Shanghai.Methods With data on daily mortality,meteorological and air pollution,we used a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) to assess the effects of daily mean temperature on deaths (caused by non-accidental,cardiovascular and respiratory) adjusted for both secular,seasonal trends and other confounders.Results A J-shaped relationship was found consistently between daily mean temperature and non-accidental,cardiovascular and respiratory deaths in Shanghai.Cold effects were delayed by 1 day to 4 days and persisted for 14-30 days.Hot effects appeared acute and the highest at the first day,but lasted for 2 days and followed by mortality displacement.ConclusionIn Shanghai,both cold and hot temperatures increased the risk of mortality with delayed effects.Cold effects seemed last longer than heat did.