Bioenergetics-based matrix population modeling enhances life-cycle toxicity assessment of tilapia Oreochromis mossambicus exposed to arsenic

The objective of this study was to integrate a bioenergetics-based modeling approach into a population stage structure to enhance life-cycle toxicity assessments of the effects of waterborne arsenic (As) on the population dynamics of the tilapia Oreochromis mossambicus. The proposed mathematical model links a Leslie matrix population model and a universal ontogenetic growth model embedding the population-level growth rate and stage-specific modes of toxic action. We present data analyses of key parameters and distributions and discuss the processes of data capture and analysis and the impact of acute/chronic As toxicity responses on population-level effects. We employed a three-parameter Hill equation model to describe the relationship between tilapia whole-body burden and mortality in order to estimate the probability of stage-specific vital rate of survival. Using the DEBtox theory, we distinguished three modes of toxic action (MOA): direct effects on growth and indirect effects via maintenance and food consumption on inhibition by arsenic of the growth of a tilapia population. The asymptotic population growth rate decreased from lambda = 1.0027 for the control group to lambda = 0.9935 for tilapia population exposed to 4 microg mL(-1) As, indicating a potential risk of population intrinsic growth rates for tilapia exposed to higher levels of waterborne As. Our results estimated that an As concentration of 1.02 microg mL(-1) would cause a 50% reduction in the tilapia population. We found that the interplay between external stressors of waterborne As concentration and internally generated modes of action decreasing feeding in the juvenile stage and increasing the maintenance cost in the adult stage had a pronounced influence on the population stage structure of tilapia.