The impact of the transmission dynamics of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on sexual behaviour: a new hypothesis to explain recent increases in risk taking-behaviour among men who have sex with men

Increases in sexually transmitted infections and related high-risk behaviours have been reported among men who have sex with men (MSM) in industrialised countries when effective antiretroviral therapy against HIV infection has become widely available, in the mid-nineties. The reasons for these increases are not fully understood and often conflicting. Prevention fatigue, relapses to unsafe sex, as well as optimism toward the risk of developing AIDS among people living with HIV are not unique to the era of antiretroviral therapy (ART). This has led researchers to highlight the need to investigate other potential reasons that could explain the increase in high-risk taking following the ART introduction. We put forward the hypothesis that the change in the transmission dynamics of the HIV/AIDS epidemic before and after the introduction of ART has contributed to this change in high-risk behaviour. It is suggested that a decline in sexual risk activities has occurred at the population-level following the initial spread of the HIV/AIDS epidemic because AIDS mortality and severe morbidity disproportionately depleted the pool of high-risk taking individuals. As a result, non-volitional changes may have occurred at the individual-level over time because the depletion of this pool of high-risk individuals made it more difficult for the remaining high-risk taking individuals to find partners to engage in risky sex with. Following its introduction, ART has facilitated the differential replenishment of the pool of individuals willing to engage in high-risk taking behaviours because ART reduces AIDS mortality, and morbidity. Consequently, high-risk taking individuals who had previously reduced their level of risky sex non-volitionally (i.e., as a result of the reduced availability of high-risk partners) were able to resume their initial high-risk practices as the pool of high-risk taking individuals replenished over time. Thus, a fraction of the recently reported increase in high-risk sexual activities may be secondary to the fact that those MSM who were unable to engage in their desired high-risky sexual activities (because of reduced availability) are now able to revert to them as the availability of men willing to engage in risky sexual behaviours increases partly due to ART. Therefore, we suggest that a fraction of the changes in individual behaviour are non-volitional and can be explained by a change in "sexual partner availability" due to the transmission dynamics of HIV/AIDS before and after ART. The hypothesis is formulated and explained using simple social network diagrams and the Theory of Planned Behaviour. We also discuss the implication of this hypothesis for HIV prevention.