2005-2016年中国脑及神经系统肿瘤发病及死亡趋势分析

目的:了解中国脑及神经系统肿瘤疾病负担及变化趋势，为进一步优化防控策略提供科学依据。方法:提取2005-2016年《中国肿瘤登记年报》脑及神经系统肿瘤发病与死亡数据，计算不同人群标化发病率和死亡率，并用Joinpoint回归模型识别其变化趋势。结果:2005-2016年全国、男女、城乡脑及神经系统肿瘤标化发病率均呈上升趋势，AAPC分别为3.58%、3.15%、4.01%、2.82%、6.08%（均P<0.05）。标化发病率无显著性别差异，城市整体标化发病率（5.65/10万）高于农村（4.64/10万）。2005-2016年全国、男女、城乡脑及神经系统肿瘤标化死亡率均呈显著上升趋势，AAPC分别为3.17%、3.08%、3.27%、2.74%、2.25%（均P<0.05）。男性整体标化死亡率（3.48/10万）高于女性（2.35/10万），农村（3.19/10万）高于城市（2.72/10万）。发病和死亡重点人群均为老年人，其中女性、农村人群的发病和死亡高峰在70~岁组，而男性、城市人群的发病和死亡高峰在75~岁组。结论:全国脑及神经系统肿瘤疾病负担逐年增加，女性与农村居民脑及神经系统肿瘤发病率快速上升，应加强重点人群脑及神经系统肿瘤早期筛查和健康干预。

Trend analysis on incidence and mortality of brain and nervous system tumors in China from 2005 to 2016

Objective:To provide scientific reference for further optimizing prevention and control strategies by understanding the disease burden and change trend of brain and nervous system tumors in China.Methods:The incidence and mortality data of brain and nervous system tumors in China Cancer Registration Annual Report from 2005 to 2016 were extracted,and the standardized incidence rate and mortality rate of different populations were calculated,and the trends were identified with the Joinpoint regression model.Results:From 2005 to 2016,the standardized incidence rate of brain and nervous system tumors in China,males and females,urban and rural areas showed upward trends,with AAPC of 3.58%,3.15%,4.01%,2.82%and 6.08%,respectively(all P<0.05).There was no significant gender difference in the standardized incidence rate.The overall standardized incidence rate in urban areas(5.65/100 000) was higher than that in rural areas(4.64/100 000).From 2005 to 2016,the standardized mortality of brain and nervous system tumors in China,males and females,urban and rural areas showed significant upward trends,with AAPC of 3.17%,3.08%,3.27%,2.74% and 2.25%,respectively(all P<0.05).The overall standardized mortality rate of males(3.48/100 000) was higher than that of females(2.35/100 000),and that of rural areas(3.19/100 000) was higher than that of urban areas(2.72/100 000).The key population of incidence and mortality was the elderly,among which the peak of incidence and mortality of females and rural population was in the 70~year old group,while the peak of incidence and mortality of males and urban population was in the 75~year old group.Conclusion:The disease burden of brain and nervous system tumors in China is increasing year by year,and the incidence of brain and nervous system tumors in women and rural residents is increasing rapidly.Therefore,the early screening and health intervention in key populations should be strengthened.