2023年2月中国需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估

目的 评估2023年2月在我国（不含香港、澳门特别行政区和台湾地区，下同）发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息，采用专家会商法，并通过视频会议形式邀请省（自治区、直辖市）疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果 预计2023年2月突发公共卫生事件报告数将较2023年1月上升。2023年2月受奥密克戎变异株XBB、CH和其他可能新出现的亚型毒株的免疫逃逸以及重复感染的影响，预计新型冠状病毒在全球可能有更多地区呈地方性流行。我国春节后人员流动增加，中小学和高校陆续开学，增加了病毒传播机会。2月流感病毒活动水平可能上升，以甲型H1N1流感为主的可能性大。结论 对新型冠状病毒感染予以特别关注，对季节性流感予以一般关注。

Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in China,February 2023

  Objective  To assess the risk of public health emergencies occurring in China (except Hong Kong, Macao Special Administrative Regions and Taiwan Province, the same below) or possibly imported from outside China in February 2023.   Methods  Based on various data and departmental notification information on domestic and foreign public health emergencies reports and surveillance of key infectious diseases, the expert consultation method was used and experts from provincial (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) centers for disease prevention and control were invited to participate in the assessment by video conference.   Results  The number of public health emergencies to be reported in February 2023 is expected to increase compared to former month. In February 2023, affected by immune escape and reinfection of Omicron variants XBB, CH and other possible emerging subtypes, it is expected that the COVID-19 may become endemic in more areas of the world. In China, because of the increased flow of people after the Spring Festival and the opening of schools, the possibility of the spread of the virus will increase. The influenza viruses activity level may increase in February, and influenza A (H1N1) is more likely to be the main influenza virus.   Conclusion  Special attention is given to COVID-19, and general attention is given to seasonal influenza.