化肥产业政策调整影响度分析

虽然化肥产业政策改革的呼声日益升高,但政策转变带来的影响却不甚明确。针对目前比较公认的“三步走”改革方案,即先取消天然气优惠,再取消电力及运输优惠,第三步取消增值税优惠,核算了产业政策的影响程度。结果表明,中国化肥产业受政策影响巨大,全行业政策支持力度达到403.1亿元,影响程度大小依次为增值税、电力、运输、天然气。通过分析各项政策改革可能引起的问题,虽然政策改革对化肥产业的影响可通过产业结构调整来适应,但是化肥价格上涨对农户的影响却只能由农户来承担,仅转移产业优惠的400多亿给农户无法防范市场波动的冲击,必须结合多项措施来规范市场、保证供应。强调应重视利用WTO绿箱政策普及肥料基本知识,使农户学会科学使用肥料以达到减少化肥使用量的目的。

Evaluation on the reform effectiveness of fertilizer industry policy in China

With the high appeal for policy reform on fertilizer industry but the indistinct policy effectiveness,the above-mentioned policy effectiveness is evaluated,based on 3-step scheme,namely firstly canceling subsidy of natural gas,then abolishing the subsidies of power and transportation,last ceasing the discount of value-added tax(VAT).The results show that a great policy effectiveness appears on fertilizer industry involved in 40.31 billion RMB Yuan,the intensiveness of policy effectiveness is ranked from high to low sequence of VAT,power,transportation and natural gas.Through a deep discussion on the changing each industry policy,the readjustment of fertilizer industry structure is suggested as a measure for alleviating the shock.However the rise of fertilizer price has to be suffered by farmers,and the subsidy of more than 40 billion RMB Yuan for farmers from the changing industry can't defense the shock of market fluctuation,some comprehensive means should be taken for ensuring a regular market order and abundant supply.It is emphasized that the green box policies of WTO should be paid great attention,the essential knowledge of fertilizer application spread,and to the farmers trained how to use and choose the fertilizer correctly for reducing the consumption of fertilizer.