7月气温和降雨量对湖北省四湖地区急性血吸虫病检出率的影响及预报初探

「目的」探索用气温和降雨量预报急性血吸虫病检出率的新途径。「方法」收集我国湖北省四湖地区１９７６～１９８９年急性血吸虫人出率（急血率）和相应地区７月气温和降雨量资料，并用ＳＰＳＳ８．０软件做多元回归分析。「结果」该区１９７６～１９８９年年急血率（ｙ）与７月份平均气温（ｘ２）呈负相关（ｒ＝－０．７４９５，Ｐ〈０．０５），与７月份平均降雨量（ｘ１）呈正相关（ｒ＝０．７３５７，Ｐ〈０．０５）。所获预报模

Preliminary Study on the Effects of Atmospheric Temperature and Rainfall in July on Detectable Rate of Acute Schistosomiasis and Prediction in Four-lake Area of Hubei Province

Objective]To explore a new path to predict the detectable rate of acute schistosomiasis using the data on atmospheric temperature and rainfall [Methods]A multiple regression analysis between the acute schistosomiasis detectable rate(ASDR) and the relative climate data in four lake area of Hubei province during 1976~1989,such as atmospheric temperature and rainfall in July,was carried out by SPSS 8 0 statistical analysis software [Results]The annual ASDR( y ) negatively correlated with the average atmospheric temperature( x 2) in July ( r=-0 7495,P<0 05) ,and positively correlated with the average rainfall ( x 1) in July ( r=0 7357,P<0 05) ,in four lake area during 1976~1989 The prediction model was calculated as y=22 633 0 01172x 1-0 741x 2 71 per cent of the goodness rates of the predicted ASDR were less than 30% [Conclusion]The obtained prediction model should be revised in the practical applications