询问法快速确定洪灾年血吸虫病高危人群的研究

目的：寻找一种快速、简单、有效的筛检洪灾区血吸虫病高危人群的方法。方法：在洞庭湖血吸虫病流行区选择遭受溃垸的2个受灾村，用回顾性的方法收集居民暴露疫水等资料。资料经变量变换后，采用逐步判别分析法进行分析。结果：对18个自变量通过逐步判别分析，筛选出5个有显著统计学意义的变量组建数学模型，用此模型对246个样本进行回代判别，其总的判别符合率为87.4%，灵敏度和特异度分别为84.1%和89.0%。结论：询问快速判别法有望成为一种具有实用价值的快速、简易、经济和有效的筛检血吸虫病高危人群的方法。

A study on the screening of high-risk population of schistosomiasis using a quick inquiry discriminant method during the years of disasters

Objective To seek a rapid, simple, but effective inquiry method for screening high risk population challenged by schistosomiasis. Methods Two embankment collapsed villages were selected in schistosomiasis epidemic area in Dongting Lake. Information on water exposure was collected through a retrospective study. Data was analyzed by stepwise discriminant analysis. Results A Fisher's function was established by stepwise discriminant analysis which including 5 variables out of 18. Two hundred and forty-six individuals were discriminated by the function with accuracy,sensitivity and specificity of predicting their current infection status with the results of 87.4%, 84.1% and 89.0% respectively. Conclusion The inquiry method might serve as simple, rapid, economic and effective tool for diagnosis in screening high risk population challenged by schistosomiasis in lake communities.