MRI as a reference standard for suspected scaphoid fractures

Objectives

Some have suggested that MRI might be the best reference standard for a true fracture among patients with suspected scaphoid fractures. The primary aim of this study was to determine the rate of false-positive diagnosis of an acute scaphoid fracture in a cohort of healthy volunteers.

Methods

In a prospective study, 33 healthy volunteers were recruited and both wrists of each were scanned, except for 2 volunteers for whom only one wrist was scanned. To simulate the usual clinical context the 64 scans of healthy volunteers were mixed with 60 MRI scans of clinically suspected scaphoid fractures but normal scaphoid radiographs. These 124 MRI scans were blinded and randomly ordered. Five radiologists evaluated the MRI scans independently for the presence or absence of a scaphoid fracture and other injuries according to a standard protocol.

Results

To answer the primary question, only the diagnoses from the 64 scans of healthy volunteers were used. The radiologists diagnosed a total of 13 scaphoid fractures; therefore, specificity for diagnosis of scaphoid fracture was 96% (95% confidence interval: range 94–98%). The 5 observers had a moderate interobserver agreement regarding diagnosis of scaphoid fracture in healthy volunteers (multirater κ=0.44; p<0.001).

Conclusions

The specificity of MRI for scaphoid fractures is high (96%), but false-positives do occur. Radiologists have only moderate agreement when interpreting MRI scans from healthy volunteers. MRI is not an adequate reference standard for true fractures among patients with suspected scaphoid fractures.The American College of Radiologists recommends MRI for diagnosis of true fractures among suspected scaphoid fractures 1]. A number of published studies cite sensitivities and specificities approaching 99% 2-9], but other studies have reported a lower sensitivity (80%) and substantial interobserver variation (κ=0.67) for diagnosis of a scaphoid fracture 2,8]. It has been difficult to agree upon a reliable reference standard for true fractures among suspected scaphoid fractures, and these studies often use only repeated radiographs 6 weeks after trauma as reference standard. However, it is also known that not all occult scaphoid fractures become apparent on repeated radiographs.It is not clear how to distinguish true fracture from other changes in bone signal that are detected with MRI. We propose that MRI of the wrists of healthy volunteers with no history of wrist or hand injury represents a reliable reference standard for the absence of an acute fracture of the scaphoid waist. By evaluating MRI scans of healthy volunteers, we may learn more about the diagnostic performance characteristics of MRI for suspected scaphoid fracture. A set of MRI scans with a reliable reference standard would also provide useful information about the reproducibility of the interpretation of MRI for suspected scaphoid fracture.The primary study question was to investigate the occurrence of false-positive diagnosis of an acute scaphoid fracture on MRI using a reliable reference standard (healthy volunteers). Secondarily we also investigated the interobserver variation of diagnosis of scaphoid fracture on MRI in healthy volunteers.