无锡市发热呼吸道症状监测在甲型H1N1流感大流行中的早期预警效果分析

目的利用已有的非典预警及流感样病例两个症状监测系统,建立无锡市流感监测预警基线值,评价其在2009年甲型H1N1流感大流行中的早期预警效果。方法对2007～2009年无锡市非典预警数据及流感样病例监测数据进行分析,对2009年的流感样病例监测数据进行拟合,分析两个系统和不同方法对甲型H1N1流感大流行早期预警的效果。结果流感样病例监测数据(ILI%)自出现首例输入性病例前1个月就出现上升趋势;非典预警监测系统中发热呼吸道病例门诊就诊率高于2007、2008年同期水平(P﹤0.001),在出现本地病例前1周就出现上升趋势。控制图法显示,2009年流感疫情与2009年甲型H1N1流感不同阶段流行趋势基本一致。结论两个监测系统2009年预警信号和实际甲型H1N1流感疫情基本吻合;移动平均回归法预警甲型H1N1流感暴发较控制图法在流行时间上更为精准。

Analysis of the early warning of the HIN1 by the Prospective Surveillance in Wuxi

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the early warning significance of influenza–like illness(ILI)surveillance in the pandemic(H1N1)2009 in Wuxi.METHODS The data of surveillance of SARS and ILI were analyzed from 2007 to 2009.The surveillance data of 2009 ILI were fitted into model for early warning of influenza,and the early warning effect of the two methods was compared.RESULTS The data of influenza cases(ILI%)showed increased after one migrant H1N1 in our city.The incidence of H1N1 in the early warning system was significantly higher than the incidence of 2007 and 2008(P﹤0.001).The incidence of local H1N1 cases showed increased trend.The chart method showed that the influenza situation by the early warning system was similar to the real situation of H1N1 in 2009.CONCLUSION The early warning signal in 2009 is consistent with the actual pandemic(H1N1)situation,moving average regression method showed acute in prediction of the trend of H1N1.