A simple method for estimating excess mortality due to heat waves, as applied to the 2006 California heat wave |
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| Authors: | Sumi Hoshiko Paul English Daniel Smith Roger Trent |
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| Institution: | 1. Environmental Health Investigations Branch, California Department of Public Health, 850 Marina Bay Parkway, Building P, 3rd Floor, Richmond, CA, 94804, USA
2. Epidemiology and Prevention for Injury Control Branch, California Department of Public Health, Sacramento, CA, USA
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| Abstract: | Objectives To characterize excess mortality during a major heat wave in California and its regions; to assess the validity of a simple method. Methods We calculated mortality rate ratios for the heat-wave period, using a reference period of the same number of days from the same summer. We conducted alternative analyses and compared our results with those from a time-series model. Results We estimated 655 excess deaths, a 6% increase (95% confidence interval, 3–9%), impacting varied geographic/climate regions. Alternate analyses supported model validity. Conclusions California experienced excess heat-wave related mortality not restricted to high heat regions. As climate change is anticipated to increase heat events, public health efforts to monitor effects assume greater importance. |
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