2008年北京奥运会病媒生物风险识别与评估方法研究

目的通过应用风险识别与评估方法，预测北京奥运会期间病媒生物危害与相关疾病发生的风险指数。及时采取应对措施，有效降低病媒生物带来的危害，避免媒介生物性传染病的发生或流行。方法通过综合分析风险性事件发生的概率和事件发生后造成的后果，对风险进行分级。首先，通过文献综述、经验分析法、头脑风暴及专家咨询法等确定风险类别，形成风险列表；然后，通过风险评价指数矩阵法综合判断风险的严重程度，并为风险排序提供统一的标准。结果北京奥运会期间存在媒介生物性传染病发生和病媒生物造成骚扰的危险。病媒生物引起的公共卫生事件（叮咬、骚扰等）及影响观瞻和环境卫生情况很可能发生，咬坏电缆、破坏电力设施的事件则比较罕见；病媒生物引起的公共卫生事件的严重程度可归纳为：咬坏电缆、破坏电力设施的事件为中等危害，叮咬、骚扰和影响观瞻、环境卫生情况危害则较小。结论通过科学地识别和评估病媒生物可能带来的危害风险、全面监测、综合防制、科学用药、组建应急队伍和推广先进技术等措施，确保实现北京奥运会无重大病媒生物危害事件发生的控制目标。

Study on the method of risk recognition and assessment of vector for 2008 Beijing Olympic Games

Objective To predict the risk indicators of the harm caused by vectors and the occurrence of related diseases during the Olympic Games by risk recognition and assessment methods. To take response measure timely and reduce effectively the harm caused by vectors in order to prevent the occurrence and prevalence of vector-borne diseases. Methods To grade the risk by analyzing the occurrence probability and consequence of risk event comprehensively. Firstly, educe the list and confirm the classification of the risk by literature consultation, empirical analysis, brain storm and expert advice. Secondly, judge the risk level by risk assessment index matrix method and provide the standard to the risk classification. Results The vector-borne diseases and nuisance caused by vectors could be potential during the Olympic Games. For the probability of the public health event caused by vectors, it certainly happens for the biting and infestation of vectors, and probably occurs for environment disruption. It is rare for the occurrence of cables bitten by rodent and power apparatus disruption. The levels of the public health event damaged by vector are as follows： it is moderate harm for the cable bitten and electronic facility disruption, and it is slight harm for the vector biting and infestation or environment disruption. Conclusion The goal that there is no serious harmful events caused by vectors during Beijing Olympic Games would be certainly realized by scientific recognition and assessment of the risk, comprehensive surveillance of vectors, integrated control, scientific using of pesticide, the organization of emergency response team and the generalization of advanced technology.