Risk-scoring Method for Prediction of 30-Day Postoperative Outcome after Infrainguinal Surgical Revascularization for Critical Lower-limb Ischemia: a Finnvasc Registry Study

Background The aim of the present study was to develop a risk-scoring method for prediction of immediate postoperative outcome after infrainguinal surgical revascularization for critical limb ischemia. Methods The Finnvasc registry included data on 3,925 infrainguinal surgical revascularization procedures. This database was randomly divided into a derivation and a validation data set of similar sizes. Results In the overall series, 30-day postoperative mortality and major amputation rates were 3.1% and 6.3%, respectively. The 30-day postoperative mortality and/or limb-loss rate was 9.2%. Diabetes, coronary artery disease, foot gangrene, and urgent operation were independent predictors of 30-day postoperative mortality and/or major lower-limb amputation. A risk score was developed by assigning 1 point each to the latter risk factors. In the derivation data set, the 30-day postoperative mortality/amputation rates in patients with scores of 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 were 7.7%, 6.4%, 11.1%, 20.4%, and 27.3%, respectively, (P < 0.0001); mortality rates were 1.3%, 2.3%, 4.1%, 7.7%, and 12.1%, respectively, (P < 0.0001); and major amputation rates were 6.4%, 4.3%, 7.1%, 12.7%, and 18.2%, respectively, (P < 0.0001). In the validation data set, the 30-day postoperative mortality/amputation rates in patients with scores of 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 were 4.8%, 7.5%, 10.1%, 15.9%, and 22.2%, respectively, (P < 0.0001); mortality rates were 0.7%, 2.3%, 4.2%, 5.5%, and 14.8%, respectively, (P < 0.0001); and major amputation rates were 4.6%, 5.3%, 6.4%, 11.0%, and 14.0%, respectively (P = 0.011). Conclusions This simple risk-scoring method can be useful to stratify the immediate postoperative outcome of patients undergoing infrainguinal surgical revascularization for critical lower-limb ischemia.