基于艾滋病高危人群基数估计方法的湖北省荆州市男男性行为人群的比较分析

目的:对湖北省荆州市市区男男性行为人群(MSM)基数进行估计并对方法学进行比较。方法:采用乘数法和捕获再捕获方法,对活动场所和网络的MSM开展调查。结果:乘数法记录数为哨点监测的400人,获取乘数时调查276人,44人参加了2011年哨点监测,估计荆州市市区MSM约为2508人,占成年男性的0.70%;捕获再捕获方法标记81人,再捕获59人,其中24人被标记,场所外MSM为场所内的10.47倍,估计荆州市市区MSM约为2294人,占成年男性的0.61%。结论:乘数法更适合荆州市MSM人群基数估计,应加大对隐蔽性MSM的艾滋病防治干预。

Comparative Study of AIDS High-risk Group Based on Estimation Method among MSM Group in Jingzhou

Objective: To estimate the population size of men who have sex with men(MSM) in Jingzhou,Hubei province,compare the methodologies.Methods: Multiplier method and capture-recapture method were used.Investigations were carried out in MSM sites and network.Results: The number of records of multiplier method was 400 from sentinel surveillance,276 were investigated to acquire the multiplier,44 participated in 2011 sentinel surveillance,and estimating the population size of MSM in Jingzhou was 2508,accounted for 0.70% of adult men.81 were marked in capture-recapture method,59 were recaptured,24 of them were marked,MSM who never went to stages were 10.47 times of MSM who went to stages,and estimating the population size of MSM was 2294,accounted for 0.61% of adult men.Conclusion: Multiplier method is more suitable for the estimation of population size of MSM in Jingzhou.However,the representativeness of the investigation sample should be considered,and the restrictions of multiplier method should be satisfied.