应用枚举法与乘数法估计女性性工作者及嫖客人群规模的研究

目的探索在女性性工作者、嫖客人群中开展规模估计的简便可行的方法，为艾滋病疫情估计和高危人群干预提供依据。方法采用枚举法和乘数法对我省部分地区女性性工作者、嫖客人群规模进行估计。结果衢州市柯城区、湖州市吴兴区、慈溪市浒山镇、海宁市硖石镇女性性工作者规模点估计值和95％可信区间分别为994（826～1161）、1833（862～2805）、1109（571～1647）和1221（975～1466）人，占当地15～49岁年龄组女性人口的0．80％、0．99％、2．15％和2．36%。衢州市柯城区、慈溪市浒山镇、海宁市硖石镇估计嫖客人数和95％可信区间分别为11755（9782～14458）、7342（6752—8046）、7985（7335～8762）人．占当地15—49岁年龄组男性人口的8．99％、13．73％、15．38％。结论采用枚举法和乘数法进行女性性工作者、嫖客人群规模估计操作简便，结果相对准确，但要注意调查人群代表性。

Size Estimation Study of Female Sex Workers and Whoremasters by Enumeration Method and Multiplier Method

Objective To show the practical and effective method for size estimation of female sex workers （FSWs） and whoremasters so as to provide evidences for AIDS epidemic estimation and intervention among high risk population. Methods Enumeration method and multiplier method were applied for size estimation of FSW and whoremasters in some areas of Zhejiang province. Results The numbers of FSWs and their 95% confidence interval （CI） were 994 （826 - 1161 ）, 1833 （862 -2805）, 1109 （571 - 1647）, and 1221 （975 -1466） in Kecheng district in Quzhou city, Wuxing district in Huzhou city, Hushan town in Cixi city, Xiashi town in Haining city, respectively, which were accounted for 0. 80%, 0. 99%, 2. 15% and 2. 36% of local female aged 15 -49 years old respectively. Additionally, the numbers of whoremasters and their 95% Cl were respectively 11755 （9782 - 14458） , 7342 （6752 - 8046）, 7985 （7335 - 8762） in Kecheng district in Quzhou city, Hushan town in Cixi city, Xiashi town in Haining City, accounting for 8.99% , 13.73% and 15.38% of the male population aged from 15 to 49 years old locally. Conclusion Enumeration method and multiplier method is simple for size estimation of FSWs and whoremasters, and the results arc relatively accurate. But the representativeness of sample for the population should be taken into consideration.