2021年9月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估

  目的   评估2021年9月在我国大陆地区发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。  方法   根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息，采用专家会商法，并通过视频会议形式邀请省（自治区、直辖市）疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。  结果   总体上，预计9月突发公共卫生事件的报告数将较8月上升。 我国境内发生新型冠状病毒境外输入及续发本地传播风险持续存在，但在可控范围内。 人间鼠疫疫情进入高发季节，疫源地人感染风险仍存在，不排除远距离疫情传播的可能。 仍可能出现人感染禽流感或人感染其他亚型动物流感散发病例，但发生大规模扩散传播的可能性极低。 炭疽处于高发期，仍有出现聚集性疫情的可能。 手足口病将进入秋季流行期，流行强度将升高，尤其南方省份病例数将增加。  结论   需要对新型冠状病毒肺炎予以特别关注，对鼠疫、人感染禽流感、炭疽和手足口病予以一般关注。

Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China,September 2021

  Objective   To assess the risk of public health emergencies, both the indigenous ones and the imported ones, which might occur in the mainland of China in September 2021.   Methods   An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference.   Results   Generally speaking, it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies would be higher in September than August. The risk of imported cases and secondary infections of COVID-19 would continue to exist, but would be controllable. It is the high incidence season of human plague. The risk of human infection in the plague focus would still exist. The possibility of long-distance transmission of plague would not be ruled out. Sporadic cases of human infections with avian influenza or other type animal influenza might still occur, but the possibility of large-scale transmission is very low. Anthrax would be at high incidence period and clusters might still occur. With the coming of autumnal epidemic period of hand, foot and mouth disease, the incidence would increase, especially in southern provinces.   Conclusion   Special attention should be paid to COVID-19, and general attention should be paid to plague, human infections with avian influenza, anthrax and hand, foot and mouth disease.