新发传染病疑似预警特征的指标筛选及建立

目的应用德尔菲法构建新发传染病疑似预警特征的指标。方法通过词云分析,依据已知传染病资料初步构建新发传染病疑似预警特征的指标池,在此基础上采用德尔菲法,通过20名专家2轮咨询来确定指标。结果确定新发传染病疑似预警特征的指标,包括头痛、发热等15个症状和肝/脾肿大、淋巴结肿大等15个体征及辅助检查指标。2轮咨询专家积极系数为100%,专家平均权威程度为0.84,协调系数为0.19。结论专家代表性强、权威程度高、协调性好,初步构建的新发传染病疑似预警特征指标较为科学合理。

Screening and Establishment of Indicators for Suspected Early Warning Features of Emerging Infectious Diseases

Objective To apply the Delphi method to construct indicators of suspected early warning characteristics of emerging infectious diseases. Methods Through word cloud analysis,an indicator pool of suspected early warning features of emerging infectious diseases was initially constructed based on known infectious disease data. On this basis,the Delphi method was used to determine the indicators through two rounds of consultations with 20 experts.Results The indicators of suspected early warning features of emerging infectious diseases were determined,including15 symptom indicators such as headache and fever,and 15 signs and auxiliary examination indicators such as liver/splenomegaly and lymphadenopathy. The positive coefficient of the two rounds of consulting is 100%,the average degree of authority of the experts is 0.84,and the coordination coefficient is 0.19. Conclusion Experts are highly representative,highly authoritative,and well-coordinated. The preliminarily constructed indicators of suspected early warning features of emerging infectious diseases are more scientific and reasonable.