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Population-level effect of potential HSV2 prophylactic vaccines on HIV incidence in sub-Saharan Africa |
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| Authors: | Esther E Freeman Richard G White Roel Bakker Kate K Orroth Helen A Weiss Anne Buvé Richard J Hayes Judith R Glynn |
| Institution: | 1. Infectious Disease Epidemiology Unit, Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, WC1E 7HT, UK;2. Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands;3. Institute of Tropical Medicine, Antwerp, Belgium |
| Abstract: | Herpes simplex virus type-2 (HSV2) infection increases HIV transmission. We explore the impact of a potential prophylactic HSV2 vaccination on HIV incidence in Africa using STDSIM an individual-based model. A campaign that achieved 70% coverage over 5 years with a vaccine that reduced susceptibility to HSV2 acquisition and HSV2 reactivation by 75% for 10 years, reduced HIV incidence by 30–40% after 20 years (range 4–66%). Over 20 years, in most scenarios fewer than 100 vaccinations were required to avert one HIV infection. HSV2 vaccines could have a substantial impact on HIV incidence. Intensified efforts are needed to develop an effective HSV2 vaccine. |
| Keywords: | HIV HSV2 Primary prevention |
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