2010—2020年湖南省梅毒时空分布特征分析

目的 对2010—2020年湖南省梅毒病例报告发病情况进行时空分布特征分析，为确定重点防控区域、制定有针对性的防治策略提供科学依据。方法 收集2010—2020年湖南省梅毒报告发病情况，使用ArcGIS 10.8软件进行空间自相关分析，使用SaTScan 9.7软件进行时空扫描分析。结果 2010—2020年湖南省梅毒报告发病率总体呈上升趋势，年均增长6.27%。全局空间自相关分析结果显示，2010—2020年湖南省梅毒报告发病率呈正向空间自相关(Moran’s I=0.2454～0.4217,P<0.001)。局部空间自相关分析结果显示，热点区域主要集中在长株潭城市群以及以怀化为中心的西部地区，冷点区域主要集中在以衡阳为中心的南部地区。分阶段时空扫描分析结果显示，2010—2020年探测出4个聚集区域，2010—2015年探测出7个聚集区域，2016—2020年探测出6个聚集区域。结论 2010—2020年湖南省梅毒报告发病率呈上升趋势，表现出明显的空间聚集性。分阶段时空扫描聚集区域数量减少，梅毒控制规划取得一定成效，仍需持续关注梅毒报告发病重点区域。

Temporal-spatial distribution characteristics of syphilis in Hunan Province, 2010-2020

Objective To analyze the characteristics of temporal and spatial distribution of reported syphilis cases in Hunan Province from 2010 to 2020, and to provide a scientific basis for determining the key prevention and control areas and formulating targeted prevention and treatment strategies. Methods We collected the reported incidence of syphilis in Hunan Province during 2010-2020. ArcGIS 10.8 software was used for spatial autocorrelation analysis, and SaTScan 9.7 software for spatio-temporal scanning analysis. Results The reported incidence rates of syphilis in Hunan Province during 2010-2020 showed an increasing trend, with an average annual growth rate of 6.27%. Results from global spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed that the reported incidence rates of syphilis in Hunan Province during 2010-2020 showed positive spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I=0.2454-0.4217, P<0.001). Results from the Getis-Ord General G spatial autocorrelation analysis displayed that the hot spots wereconcentrated in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration and the western region centered on Huaihua, while the cold spots were the southern region centered on Hengyang. Results from the phased spatio-temporal scanning analysis identified four cluster areas from 2010 to 2020, seven cluster areas in 2010-2015 and six cluster areas between 2016 and 2020. Conclusion The reported incidence rates of syphilis in Hunan Province during 2010-2020 presented an upward trend with obvious spatial clustering. Numbers of cluster areas through the phased spatio-temporal scanning analysis gradually decreased. The syphilis control program has achieved some success, and it is still necessary to continue to pay attention to the key areas with reported syphilis cases