Incidence of end-stage renal disease in medically treated patients with severe bilateral atherosclerotic renovascular disease

Incidence of end-stage renal disease in medically treated patients with severe bilateral atherosclerotic renovascular disease. Atherosclerotic renovascular disease is an important cause of end-stage renal disease (ESRD). The exact incidence of ESRD and the rate of decline in glomerular filtration rate (GFR) in patients with this condition is unknown. We report the mortality, the rate of decline in renal function, and incidence of ESRD in 51 patients with bilateral atherosclerotic renovascular disease followed-up for a median period of 52 months. None of these patients had undergone any surgical or radiological intervention. Renal function was determined by serial measurements of serum creatinine. Bilateral atherosclerotic renovascular disease was associated with a high mortality rate; the crude mortality rate at 60 months was 45%. Assessment of renal function showed impaired renal function at time of angiography and a nonuniform and variable decline in renal function during the period of observation. The median GFR decreased from 39 mL/min (range, 15 to 80 mL/min) at time of angiography to 31 mL/min (range, 10 to 70 mL/min) and 24 mL/min (range, 10 to 40 mL/min) at 24 and 60 months, respectively (P < 0.05). The calculated mean rate of decline in GFR for all patients was 4 mL/min/yr (range, 1 to 16 mL/min/yr). Over the 5 years, there was a progressive increase in the incidence of ESRD. Of the original 51 patients who underwent angiography, six patients reached ESRD. The crude incidence of ESRD was, therefore, 12%. Patients who reached ESRD were characterized by advanced azotemia at the time of angiography (median GFR, 25 mL/min) and a rapid decline in GFR (8 mL/min) compared with patients who did not reach ESRD during the observation period (median GFR, 43 mL/min and an average rate of decline GFR of 3 mL/min).