Disabilities, subjective health and mortality after a 3-year follow-up of a rural aged population

This study examines risk factors for mortality on a three years follow-up, in a sample of 645 subjects 60 years and over, living in a rural area in Haute-Garonne. Basic data were collected by interview in a transversal survey in 1982 and three years later 68 persons had died. The assessment of relative risk factors illustrates the important role of disabilities (RR = 5.3), of self-evaluation of health, and of degree of enthusiasm for life; but there is no statistical relationship between mortality and social support, or number of diseases. A discriminant analysis, indicates that disabilities and subjective assessment of health seem to be independent predictors of mortality. A "mortality risk indicator" including nine components, can identify people who have a high risk of dying within three years, with a sensitivity of 77% and specificity of 78%.