| 应用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型预测甲型病毒性肝炎发病率 |
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| 引用本文： | 胡建利,梁祁,吴莹,张永杰,艾静,刘文东,胡月梅. 应用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型预测甲型病毒性肝炎发病率[J]. 数理医药学杂志, 2010, 23(2): 130-132. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-4337.2010.02.002 |
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| 作者姓名： | 胡建利 梁祁 吴莹 张永杰 艾静 刘文东 胡月梅 |
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| 作者单位： | 江苏省疾病预防控制中心急性传染防制所,南京,210009 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的:探讨预测江苏省甲肝发病率的数学模型,为甲肝防制工作提供科学的参考依据。方法:利用1999～2007年江苏省甲肝的发病率资料建立GM(1,1)预测模型,并进行模型评价。结果:甲肝发病率的GM(1,1)模型为,拟合效果较好,同时利用模型外推预测了2008年的甲肝发病率,预测准确。结论:如无较大规模的甲肝爆发,运用此预测方法较为方便适用。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色系统 GM(1,1)模型 甲型肝炎 预测 |
Application of Gray System GM(1,1) Models to Predict the incidence of Viral Hepatitis A |
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| Hu Jianli,et al. Application of Gray System GM(1,1) Models to Predict the incidence of Viral Hepatitis A[J]. Journal of Mathematical Medicine, 2010, 23(2): 130-132. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-4337.2010.02.002 |
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| Authors: | Hu Jianli et al |
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| Affiliation: | Hu Jianli,et al(Department of Acute Infectious Disease Control , Prevention Jiangsu Province Center for Disease Control , Prevention No.172,Nanjing 210009) |
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| Abstract: | Objective:The study was conducted to explore a mathematical model which can forecast the incidence of hepatitis A in Jiangsu Province,and provide the scientific evidence for the control of HAV infection. Methods:Grey system GM (1,1) prediction model was builded by the use of the incidence of hepatitis A data from 1999 to 2007 in Jiangsu Province,then it was evaluated. Results:The fitting result of GM (1,1) model of hepatitis A is better. The incidence of hepatitis A in 2008 is extrapolated from the model an... |
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| Keywords: | grey system GM(1 1) model hepatitis A forecast |
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