低污染区心脑血管病死亡率与大气污染关系研究

目的：探讨低污染地区大气污染物对居民心脑血管病死亡率的影响。方法：制定研究方案，收集2002年至2007年某地区心脑血管病日死亡人数和主要大气污染物日平均浓度，经时间序列平稳化后，再运用多元线性回归法进行相关性和确定性分析。结果：（1）该地区大气中二氧化硫（SO2）、二氧化氮（NO2）、一氧化碳（CO）以及空气动力学直径10μm以下的可吸入颗粒物（PM10）日平均浓度与居民心脑血管疾病死亡率之间存在显著相关（P〈0．05），其中S0：、NO：、CO每升高10μg／m^3心脑血管疾病死亡的相对危险度（RR）增加，分别为1．056（95％CI：1．0491．064）、1．010（950oCI：1．002～1．018）和1．001（95％CI：1．000～1．001），而PM10则呈显著负相关（P=0。00）。（2）心脑血管病死亡率与大气污染物浓度存在线性回归（P〈0．05），SO：浓度对心脑血管疾病死亡率的影响最大。结论：该地区居民心脑血管病死亡率与大气中SO2、NO2和CO呈正相关，存在线性回归，其中尤以SO2的影响最大。

Relation between the mortality of cardio-cerebrovascular disease and the air pollution in less polluted area

Objective：To investigate the effect of the main atmospheric pollutants on the mortality of cardio-cerebrovascular disease in the less polluted zone. Methods：Data about the cases died of cardioeerebrovascular disease and the main atmospheric pollutants were collected and the daily mortality and concentration were calculated. The relation between the main atmospheric pollutants and the mortality of cardio-cerebrovascular disease was analyzed using methods of the time series and multiple linear regression. Results： （1） In this study, The daily average concentrations of the main atmospheric pollutants, including sulfur dioxide （SO2）, nitrogen dioxide （NO2）, carbon monoxide （CO）, and respirable suspended particulate less than or equal to 10 microm of the aerodynamic diameter, PM10, were significantly correlated to the daily mortality of cardio-cerebrovascular disease in this zone （for SO2, NO2 and CO, P 〈0.05, respectively）. The estimated relative risk （RR） and 95% interval confidence （95% CI）of the mortality of cardio-cerebrovascular disease for each 10 μg/m^3 increase of SO2, NO2 and CO were I. 056 （ 1. 049- 1. 064）, 1. 010 （1. 002 - 1.018）and 1. 001 （1. 000-1. 001 ）, respectively. However, there was significant negative correlation for PM10 （P = 0.00）. （2） Multiple linear regression between the mortality and the concentration of pollutants （P〈0.05）. Based on the result of the standardized coefficients, the independent variable of SO2, exerted the maximal influence on the dependent variable of the mortality of cardio-cerebrovascular disease. Conclusion：In the less polluted zone, there are significantly positive correlation and linear regression between the mortality of cardio-cerebrovascular disease and the concentrations of air pollutants, especially for SO2.