Unexplained elevated maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein is not predictive of adverse perinatal outcome in an indigent urban population.

OBJECTIVE: The null hypothesis of this study is that in an urban, indigent obstetric population at high risk for adverse perinatal outcome, unexplained elevations of maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein are not an additional predictor of adverse perinatal outcome. STUDY DESIGN: Perinatal outcomes of 72 patients from a clinic for indigent patients with unexplained elevated maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein levels were compared with those of matched controls from the same population with normal maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein levels. Subjects and controls were matched for age, race, parity, and presence or absence of Hollister risk factors. The frequency of adverse perinatal outcome in the two groups was subjected to matched-pair chi 2 analysis. RESULTS: Adverse perinatal outcome occurred in 38.9% (28 of 72) of subjects with unexplained elevated maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein levels greater than or equal to 2.5 multiples of the median, compared with 31.9% (23 of 72) of controls with normal maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein levels (p = 0.5). No statistically significant difference in adverse perinatal outcomes was found. CONCLUSIONS: Elevated maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein levels offer little if any additional predictive value for adverse perinatal outcome in populations already at high risk for such outcomes on the basis of obstetric or socioeconomic criteria.