2011-2014年长沙市手足口病流行病学特征及其时空聚集性分析

目的 分析2011-2014年长沙市手足口病流行特征与时空分布,为手足口病预防控制工作提供依据。 方法 利用2011-2014年长沙市手足口病监测数据,在描述其流行病学特征的基础上,使用SatScan软件进行以月为时间单位、以乡镇为空间单位的时空聚集性分析,利用MapGIS软件建立数据库并编制病例时空聚集区域图。 结果 2011-2014年长沙市共报告手足口病100 199例,男女性别比为1.52:1;发病年龄主要集中在1~4岁;散居儿童占总发病人数的76.03%;发病高峰期基本呈现双高峰状态;各街道(乡、镇)均有病例。纯时间聚集性分析探测到时间维度为4-7月;纯空间聚集性分析所锁定的一级聚集区域均含有星沙街道、泉塘街道、湘龙街道、小河乡;而时空聚集性分析结果表明2011-2014年长沙市手足口病聚集时间为2014年的4-6月,聚集区域主要分布在长沙市中部和东南部地区。 结论 2011-2014年长沙市手足口病发病存在明显的季节差异和高发区域。防控的关键期在4-7月,重点人群是1~4岁的散居儿童。

Epidemiological characteristics and temporal-spatial clustering analysis of hand,foot and mouth disease in Changsha City, 2011-2014

Objective To explore the epidemiological characteristics and spatial-temporal clusters of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Changsha City in 2011-2014, and to provide evidence for HFMD prevention and control strategies. Methods HFMD surveillance data in 2011-2014 were collected. The SatScan software was employed with month as the time unit and township as the spatial unit to identify spatial-temporal clusters of HFMD. The MapGIS software was used to establish the database and to map case spatial-temporal clustering areas. Results A total of 100,199 HFMD cases were reported in Changsha City in 2011-2014, with the male to female ratio of 1.52:1. The cases mainly clustered in children aged 1-4 years, and scattered children acccounted for 76.03%. HFMD had double incidence peaks and occurred in all streets and townships. Pure time clustering analysis showed that the cases clustered from April to July, and pure spatial analysis indicated that the first level clusters occurred in Xingsha Street, Quantang Street, Xianglong Street and Xiaohe Township. The temporal-spatial clustering analysis revealed that HFMD clusters most likely occurred in the central and southeast areas of Changsha City from April to June, 2014. Conclusions HFMD has an obvious seasonality and high-risk areas in Changsha City in 2011－2014. The comprehensive preventive strategy should be implemented from April to July and focused on scattered children aged 1-4 years.