2006-2014年重庆市肺癌发病趋势分析

目的 了解重庆市肺癌发病率及变化趋势,为制定防控措施提供建议。 方法 2006-2014年的肺癌发病资料来源于重庆市肿瘤登记点,计算肺癌发病率、中标率、世标率、截缩发病率、累积发病率与累积危险度、年度变化百分比等指标,采用曲线估计指数分布回归模型判别趋势变化的统计学差异。 结果 2006-2014年重庆市肺癌发病率由37.52/10万上升至62.11/10万,年度变化百分比为4.50%,发病率、中标率与世标率变化趋势差异均无统计学意义(P>0.05)。男性肺癌发病率是女性的约2.5倍,男性与女性肺癌发病率均呈上升的趋势,变化趋势差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05)。肺癌发病率城市高于农村,城市肺癌发病率、中标率、世标率均呈上升趋势,变化趋势差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05)。肺癌发病率随年龄的增长呈上升的趋势,发病高峰年龄组在85岁～。截缩发病率介于50.64/10万~60.61/10万,累积危险度介于1.68%~2.13%,累积危险度男性是女性的约2.5倍,城市是农村的约1.5倍,男性肺癌的累积危险度呈下降的趋势,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。 结论 2006-2014年重庆市肺癌发病率高,男性与城市肺癌发病率呈上升的趋势。

Incidence of lung cancer and its change trend in Chongqing City, 2006-2014

Objective To understand the incidence of lung cancer and its change trend in Chongqing City, so as to provide reference for lung cancer prevention and control. Methods Cases of lung cancer from 2006 to 2014 were collected from cancer registered sites in Chongqing City. The indicators of lung cancer such as incidence, age-standardized incidence adjusted by China and world population, truncated incidence, cumulative rate, cumulative risk and annual percentage change were calculated. The significance of the change trend of lung cancer from 2006 to 2014 was identified by curve estimated exponential regression model. Results The incidence of lung cancer increased from 37.52/100,000 to 62.11/100,000 from 2006 to 2014 in Chongqing City, with an annual percentage change of 4.50%. The change trends of the incidence, age-standardized incidence by China and world population were not significantly different (P>0.05). The incidence in males was about 2.5 times that in females, and both increased significantly (P<0.05). The incidence in urban area was higher than in rural area. The incidence, age-standardized incidence by China and world population all showed significant upward change trends (P<0.05). The incidence of lung cancer increased with age and reached the top in the age group of 85～. The truncated incidence was between 50.64/100 ,000 and 60.61/100, 000. The cumulative risk of lung cancer was between 1.68% and 2.13%. The cumulative risk of lung cancer in males was 2.5 times that in females, and in urban area was 1.5 times that in rural area. The cumulative risk in male residents showed a significant downward trend (P<0.05). Conclusions The incidence of lung cancer is high in Chongqing City, 2006-2014. It shows increase trends in male residents and in urban areas.