ARIMA模型在深圳市法定传染病发病趋势预测的应用*

目的通过探讨单纯求和自回归滑动平均模型( ARIMA模型) 应用于法定传染病发病率预测的可行性, 为传染病防控工作提供科学依据.方法 采用 SAS 9.2软件对深圳市2004-2014年的病毒性肝炎,细菌性痢疾的月发病率进行ARIMA模型的建模拟合,预测2015年病毒性肝炎,细菌性痢疾的月发病率.结果 ARIMA 模型对病毒性肝炎,细菌性痢疾的拟合效果较好.结论ARIMA 模型对深圳市几种传染病发病的时间序列变动趋势能进行较好的模拟, 因此可以为法定传染病的预测提供依据.2015年预测结果提示病毒性肝炎的发病有上升趋势,需进一步调整相应防控策略.

Feasibility Study on ARIMA Model in the Prediction of Notifiable Communicable Diseases in Shenzhen City

Objective To explore the feasibility of ARIMA model in the prediction of the prevalence of communicable diseases and to provide scientific basis for the control and prevention of communicable diseases. Methods Incidence of viral hepatitis and dysentery was collected monthly from 2003 to 2014 and a model(ARIMA)was fit with SAS 9.2 software, predict the monthly incidence of viral hepatitis and dysentery in 2015. Results The fitting effect with ARIMA model was good in the prediction of viral hepatitis and dysentery. Conclusions The change of time series of the prevalence of communicable diseases can be simulated with ARIMA model, which can provide evidence for the prediction of notifiable communicable diseases. The predicted values in 2015 suggested that the prevention and control strategies on viral hepatitis should be explored further.