脑卒中复发影响因素分析及函数预测模型

目的 研究脑卒中复发危险因素并建立复发函数预测模型。方法 用Life—table法和Kaplan—Meier法对随访资料进行生存分析，采用COX比例风险模型进行因素分析。建立复发函数预测模型及复发判别函数，并对资料进行回代检验。结果 年龄、主要病史、病情严重程度、出院状态、有无后遗症、是否锻炼以及社会心理因素都是影响患者复发的主要因素。复发模型为：h(t，X)＝h0(t)exp(一0．9093X1十1．5247X2十0．2019X3十1．1931X4)；复发判别函数为：Y(1)＝一3．9367十2．1706X1十4．2893X2十0．9735X3十2．8313X4。结论 影响脑卒中复发的因素不但包括发病情况，而且还包括病后康复和社会心理因素。为了减少脑卒中复发，在积极进行治疗的同时，也要大力加强康复和社会支持力度。

Analysis of Risk Factors for Recurrence of Stroke and the Prognostic Models

Objective To investigate the risk factors and set up the prognostic models for the recurrence of stroke.Methods A follow up study was carried out with Life table and Kaplan Meier methods for survival analysis,Cox regression for factor analysis and Discriminant analysis for setting up the models.Results Cox regression showed that the important factors associated with stroke recurrence included:age,disease history,the severity of the stroke,exercise and social psychological factors,etc.The prognostic model was:h(t,X)=h 0(t)exp(-0 909 3 X 1+1 524 7 X 2+0 201 9 X 3+1 193 1 X 4);and the recurrent discriminant equation was:Y(1)= -3 936 7 +2 170 6 X 1+4 289 3 X 2+0 973 5 X 3+2 831 3 X 4.Conclusion To reduce the recurrence of the stroke,we should strengthen the rehabilitation and social support as well as the active treatment on the patients.;