某脑科医院近20年神经精神疾病门诊量动态分析

目的探讨某脑科医院神经精神疾病门诊量的动态变化规律,为疾病的预防和控制提供科学依据.方法选择某脑科医院1985年1月-2004年12月的门诊人次为历史资料,应用Excel 2000和SAS 6.12统计分析软件进行动态分析,选用ARIMA（1,0,1）（0,1,1）12模型做趋势预测.结果1985-2004年间的门诊人次呈上升趋势,年平均增长率为3.06%且有明显的季节变动,年内明显呈现低谷和峰谷现象.同时预测2005年各月的门诊人次.结论神经精神等慢性病正成为严重影响我国居民健康的重大的公共卫生问题,是疾病防治的重点.

Amount Trend Analysis and Prediction of Neuropsychic Outpatients in a Brain Hospital from 1985-2004

Objective To analyze the amount trend of outpatients with neuropsychic diseases,and to provide the scientific foundation for those diseases prevention and control.Methods The amount trend of neuropsychic outpatients from 1985 to 2004 was analyzed with Excel 2000 and SAS software and predicted with ARIMA(1,0,1)(0,1,1)12 model.Results The outpatient amount of the hospital was higher in 2004 than in 1985,annual average growth rate was 3.06%;and there was obvious seasonal fluctuation in each month,it showed a low point and a high point within a year;Outpatient numbers of each month in 2005 were predicted.Conclusions The results indicated that it was still an important public health task to prevent and control the neuropsychic diseases.