广州市白云区2013—2017年登革热时空聚集性分析

目的 研究广州市白云区登革热流行的时空分布特征和变化趋势,为登革热防控工作提供科学建议。方法 数据来源于中国疾病预防控制信息系统,使用SaT Scan9.6软件进行登革热时空聚集性扫描分析。结果 2013—2017年广州市白云区共报告登革热12 050例,其中2014 年登革热发病率最高,年发病率517.41/10万。经时空聚集性分析,共有17个街镇为Ⅰ类聚集区域。时空扫描分析结果显示,2013—2017年登革热发病主高峰在7—11月。空间聚集位于白云区城区中部。发病率空间分布呈现南部高于北部、东部高于西部的特征。在经过2014年暴发疫情后,2015年至2016年疫情相对平缓,2017年疫情有死灰复燃的迹象,经空间聚集性分析,共有15个街镇为Ⅰ类聚集区域。随着扫描半径增大,最可能聚集区域向南部市区方向扩散。结论 广州市白云区登革热发病具有时空聚集性,7—11月是高发季节,城区街道聚集性明显高于郊区各个镇,存在明显的时空聚集性。发病病例主要集中在青壮年,家务和待业、工人及商业服务职业是高发人群。建议对登革热高风险人群和高聚集区域加强监测和管理,制定有针对性的登革热防控策略。2017年疫情的复燃态势,提示2018年登革热要尽早防控。

Spatio-temporal clustering analysis of dengue fever in Baiyun District of Guangzhou, 2013- 2017

Objective We studied on the temporal-spatial distribution characteristics and trend of dengue fever prevalence in Baiyun District of Guangzhou, in order to provide scientific advice for dengue fever prevention and control.Methods According to the Chinese disease prevention and control information system, we used SaT Scan9.6 software to analyze the temporal—spatial clustering of dengue fever.Results From 2013 to 2017, 12 050 cases of dengue fever were reported in Baiyun District of Guangzhou. In 2014, the incidence of dengue fever was the highest, with an annual incidence rate of 517.41/100 000. Through the spatio-temporal clustering analysis, a total of 17 areas belonged to type I cluster area. The results of space-time scan analysis showed that the main peak of the disease was from July to November. The spatial clustering was located in the middle of the urban area of Baiyun District. The characteristics of incidence in spatial distribution were the south higher than the north, and the east higher than the west. After the outbreak in 2014, the epidemic trend was relatively mild from 2015 to 2016. But there were signs of relapse trend of the epidemic in 2017. Through the spatio-temporal clustering analysis, a total of 15 areas belonged to type I cluster area. As the scanning radius increased, the most likely area of clustering would be spread toward the southern urban area.Conclusion sThe incidence of dengue fever in Baiyun District of Guangzhou was characterized by temporal—spatial clustering. The high season for dengue fever is from July to November. The clustering of urban street was significantly higher than that of suburban towns. This indicated that the distribution of dengue cases had obvious temporal-spatial clustering. The high incidence of the population was mainly young and middle-aged, domestic and unemployed, workers and commercial service personnel. We suggest that should strengthen monitoring and management of high-risk populations and high-aggregation areas. At the same time, we should develop targeted strategies for prevention and control of dengue fever. The relapse trend of dengue fever in 2017 showed that dengue fever should be prevented and controlled as early as possible in 2018.