广东省3个城市大气污染物二氧化氮对居民的死亡效应研究

目的探讨广东省广州、佛山及珠海3个城市的大气污染二氧化氮(NO_2)对居民每日死亡效应的影响。方法收集2013—2016年广州、佛山及珠海3个城市的每日大气污染物浓度、气象资料数据和居民的每日总死亡数据,对数据基本特征进行统计描述,并通过Spearman分析其相关关系,最后利用广义相加模型(GAM)分别对3个城市的NO_2日均浓度及每日总死亡数据进行分析。结果 2013—2016年广州、佛山及珠海市的大气污染物NO_2日均浓度分别为46.4、48.4、33.1μg/m^3,均符合国家二级标准(80μg/m^3)。广州市大气中NO_2日均浓度对当天、滞后1、2 d的每日总死亡人数、循环系统疾病死亡人数的影响有统计学意义(均P<0.05),佛山市滞后1、2 d的NO_2日均浓度对居民每日总死亡人数及循环系统疾病每日死亡人数的影响有统计学意义(均P<0.05),广州和佛山市均表现出滞后1 d时效应最大。滞后2 d的NO_2日均浓度对广州市居民的呼吸系统疾病每日死亡人数有影响(ER=1.38)。结论大气污染物NO_2浓度的上升会引起居民死亡风险的增加,应引起重视。

Effects of atmospheric NO2 pollution on mortality in three cities of Guangdong Province

Objective To explore effects of atmospheric nitrogen dioxide （NO₂） pollution on mortality in cities of Guangzhou, Foshan and Zhuhai in Guangdong Province. Methods Air pollutant data, meteorological data and the daily case of death in the three cities were collected from 2013 to 2016. Basic characteristics of the data were statistically described and the correlation was analyzed by Spearman. Then, generalized additive model （GAM） was used to explore the relationship between the daily average concentration of NO₂ and daily mortality in the three cities. Results The average daily concentrations of NO₂ in Guangzhou, Foshan and Zhuhai from 2013 to 2016 were 46.4, 48.4 and 33.1 μg/m³, respectively, meeting the National Standards at Level 2（80 μg/m³）. The daily average concentration of NO₂ in the atmosphere of Guangzhou had a statistically significant effect on the daily total number of deaths and the number of deaths from circulatory diseases at the same day, lag1 and lag2 days （P<0.05 for all）. There was a statistically significant effect of the daily average concentration of NO₂ in Foshan City at lag1 and lag2 days on the daily total number of deaths of residents and the daily number of deaths from circulatory diseases （both P<0.05）. Both Guangzhou and Foshan showed the greatest effect on lag1 day. The daily average concentration of NO₂ had an impact on the daily death toll of respiratory diseases of residents in Guangzhou （ER=1.38） on lag2 day. Conclusions The incrase in the concentratienof The increase in the cocentration of NO₂ air pollutantion can affect the risk of daily mortality of residents.